I had a thought about all the executive orders the OAFPOTUS signed Monday and Tuesday. Do they seem to anyone else like a King's Speech at the state opening of Parliament? Remember than an EO only directly affects the Executive Branch, and in many cases, still requires enabling legislation from the other end Pennsylvania Avenue.
I don't like how this reinforces the idea of the President as a monarch—something our founders explicitly said should never happen—but in terms of how an EO actually affects the world, it really could be read out by King Charles and have the same effect in the US.
In any event, it took less than 24 hours for a Federal judge to block the OAFPOTUS's executive order purporting to overturn the 14th Amendment, so our constitutional system hasn't completely collapsed yet.
In other news:
Finally, even though the high temperature today of -3.9°C happened right before sunrise and we're now scraping along at -7.6°C, and even though it hasn't been above freezing since before 8am Saturday, and even though tomorrow will be just as cold...it looks like we might get above freezing by noon this coming Saturday. I can't wait.
The temperature at Inner Drive Technology WHQ has gone above -6°C for the first time since 10:30pm Saturday. It might even get up to -4°C, at which point we break out the Bermuda shorts. The forecast threatens another brief drop to -14°C tomorrow night before popping above freezing sometime Saturday afternoon.
So we've had a bit of cold, sure, but we've only got a few patches of snow here and there, with no significant precipitation expected. Compare that with, say, New Orleans this morning:
As historic snowfall — in some places more than double-digit totals — fell Tuesday along the Gulf Coast and in the Deep South and Southeast, meteorologists ran out of adjectives to describe what they were seeing.
“Just like hundreds of other meteorologists today, I am speechless,” one wrote, sharing a video clip of whiteout conditions on Pensacola Bay Bridge in Florida. The city of Milton, Florida, reported 8.8 inches — probably the state’s biggest daily snowfall on record.
In Louisiana, deep mounds of snow met the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. In New Orleans, locals skied down Bourbon Street as the airport recorded 8 inches, smashin the daily record of 2.7 inches.
That's right, kids, the Big Easy has 20 cm of snow on the ground for the first time since the Chicxulub impact 66 million years ago. OK, well, probably more recently than that; but never since European colonization of the area. Ain't global warming fun?
Ah, ha ha. Ha.
Today is the first full day of the Once Again Felonious POTUS, who wound everyone up yesterday with a bunch of statements of intent (i.e., executive orders) guaranteed to get people paying attention to him again. Yawn.
But that isn't everything that happened in the last 24 hours:
Finally, while Chicago has almost no snow on the ground, which probably helped prevent the overnight temperature from going below -20°C at Inner Drive Technology WHQ, the same weather system has already dumped more snow on the Gulf Coast cities of Mobile and Pensacola than they have ever recorded. Right now at Pensacola International, they have snow and -4°C temperatures. Climate change science didn't predict this specific event, but it did predict the weakening of the circumpolar jet stream that made this possible. This is not normal (temperatures in Fahrenheit):
We woke up this morning to frigid -17°C air (with sun though!), with an official overnight low of -19°C at O'Hare. We get cold like this almost every year; in fact, it got down to -23°C just 371 days ago.
No, the record low temperature for this day was also the coldest temperature ever recorded in Chicago, on Sunday 20 January 1985: -32°C. It was so cold that morning that my high school cancelled classes the next day—the only time they did so in my four years there.
Chicago historian John R Schmidt also remembers:
The winters had been getting colder in Chicago. The previous record low temperature had been -31°C, posted only three years ago. A new Ice Age seemed to be on the way. Both Time and Newsweek had predicted it in cover-stories.
Some experts claimed that Chicago temperatures weren’t really setting records. In 1970 the city’s official weather station had been moved from Midway to O’Hare. Everyone knew that the readings were usually a few degrees lower at O’Hare.
The day moved on. By noon the mercury had climbed to -27°C. Now more people were venturing out. A young man on State Street was heading for a movie. “I got tired of staying in,” he said. “What can you do except watch reruns on television?”
Remember, kids: this was five years before Tim Berners Lee invented the World Wide Web and 16 years before the current century. We had to read books, or in my case, study for final exams.
More relevantly, though, is what happened to the predicted ice age. Going by astronomical cycles that have governed Earth's climate for millions of years, we should be moving into a cooler period, and indeed temperatures have declined overall since about 4000 YBP. Yet since around 1800, global average temperatures have instead gone up, increasing even more rapidly in the last 40 years than in any other time than we have detected in the million-year ice record.
There is no guarantee that Chicago will never experience a colder temperature than we did 40 years ago today. But with the OAFPOTUS bringing his kakistocratic, climate-denying clown car back into power in just two hours, we will probably break more heat records than cold records.
I hope we live long enough to see.
Cassie only got an 8-minute walk this morning, and she's not likely to get a longer one today. Officially at O'Hare it's -15°C, and here at IDTWHQ it's -13°C. The forecast promises the temperature will remain right around there until tonight before sliding down to -18°C by 3am, and -21°C Tuesday morning around 5am. Brr.
My Garmin app tells me I'm on day 22 of a 30-day "walk streak" of getting a walking activity of at least 1.6 km every day. We'll see about that. Cassie won't be able to join me, poor dear, because it's not safe for her to be out longer than 10 minutes at this temperature.
The temperature will get back up to -4°C or so when it's time to come home from day camp on Wednesday, though. And I'll make sure to give her extra walkies next weekend.
We've known for about a week that a mass of cold air was bearing down on us. It formed over Siberia, passed over the North Pole and Canada, and has now reached Chicago.
Cassie and I went out just now for 22 minutes, and in that time the temperature dropped 0.4°C (0.7°F), which may not sound like a lot until you do the math (1.2°C/2.2°F per hour). And it will continue doing so until early Monday morning, plateauing but not rising during daylight hours:
Fortunately for us (but unfortunately for a lot of insects and plants), we have almost no snow on the ground after two days of above-freezing weather. Without the snow to lower its albedo, the ground will absorb the abundant sunlight to keep us warmer than we otherwise would be:
The dump of arctic air will be in full swing Sunday night with a lobe of roughly -27° to -30°C 850 mb air waiting in the wings just to our north and west, and this will traverse northern Illinois fully on Monday night. From a climatology perspective, this is just about as cold as we`ve seen (at 850 mb) in the nearby upper air database (Quad Cities and Lincoln, IL). Out of curiosity, went back and took a look at the arctic outbreak from this time last year (January 14 - 17), which featured low temperatures in the -5° to -15°F range and wind chills solidly down towards -30°F (and even lower than that on short time periods). 850 mb temperatures in this case were actually notably "warmer", generally around -20°C. They key difference was a widespread and dense snowpack which we obviously don`t have this time around, which just goes to show the power of snowpacks in altering these arctic airmasses. In this case, little/snow in place, even amidst near-record cold just off the deck, the peak of this arctic episode looks to wind up a bit under where we found ourselves one year ago.
Also, yesterday we had a late-March-like 8.3°C high temperature at O'Hare, and the temperatures should go above zero again on Thursday. The coldest normal temperatures in January occur on the 23rd to the 25th, so this is pretty much right on time.
The worst part of this will fall on Cassie. She only has the two fur coats her parents gave her, and she has no sense of cold. I've explained to her that she's only going to get 5-minute walks from Sunday to Tuesday. She responded by rolling on her back and demanding a belly-rub. I'm envious.
The temperature at Inner Drive Technology World HQ peeked above freezing a few minutes ago:
We last had an above-freezing temperature at 4:25pm Sunday. We expect above-freezing temperatures during the day tomorrow, too. And then, around 2am Saturday morning, the forecast says the temperature will start sliding down to -20°C by 5am Sunday. We expect to have temperatures below -10°C from Saturday morning until early Wednesday morning.
Right now, however, we have clear skies and lots of sun. Time to take Cassie for a half-hour walk.
Today marks the middle of winter, when fewer days remain in the (meteorological) season than have passed. Good thing, too: yesterday we had temperatures that looked happy on a graph but felt miserable in real life, and the forecast for Sunday night into Monday will be even worse—as in, a low of -20°C going "up" to -14°C. Fun!.
(Yesterday's graph:)
Elsewhere in the world:
- Israel and Hamas have reached a cease-fire agreement, with the US and Qatar signing off.
- OAFPOTUS Defense Secretary nominee, former Fox News pretty boy, and all-around fundamentalist crackpot Pete Hegseth sat before the US Senate Armed Services committee yesterday, whose Republican members asked him about "your wife that you love" and whose Democratic members asked him about unlawful orders and the numerous allegations of wrongdoing against him. My combat-decorated junior Senator, Tammy Duckworth (D), flatly called him "unqualified." (She was being polite.)
- Jennifer Rubin calls Hegseth "the greatest DEI disaster ever:" "Considering Hegseth, election denier Attorney General Pam Bondi, WWE exec Linda McMahon for secretary of education, and vaccine denier, brain-worm victim Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Health and Human Services, one must conclude Republicans are not sending us their best. (Or, the more alarming alternative…they are sending their best.)" Ruth Marcus also piled on.
- Author John Scalzi shares his thoughts on the allegations against and admissions of author Neil Gaiman published in New York this week.
- Chicago's Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) has proposed $1.5 bn in spending to improve transit for the entire area.
- Chicago lost another coyote yesterday when a plane taking off from O'Hare ran him over. (Neither the FAA nor United Airlines has confirmed that the coyote died, but I think we can make an inference here.)
- Last year was the second-warmest on record in Illinois, continuing a long-term warming trend that began after the coldest winters ever in the early 1980s.
Finally, as of today I've had a private pilot certificate for 25 years. When I last posted about this anniversary, I hoped to resume flying later that spring. Alas, something else was in the air. I still want to fly again, though. All I need is a winning lottery ticket.
Yesterday, the temperature at Inner Drive Technology World HQ scraped along at -11°C early in the morning before "warming" up to -7.5°C around 3pm. Cassie and I got a 22-minute walk around then and she seemed fine. Today the pattern completely inverted. I woke up during the warmest part of the day: 7am, -8°C. Around 8am the temperature started dropping and now hovers around -11°C again—slightly colder than the point where I limit Cassie to 15 minutes outside. She just doesn't feel cold, apparently, and would happily stay outside until she passed out from hypothermia.
So, bottom line, I'm in no hurry to take her for her lunchtime walk.
Besides, I've got a lot of interesting stories to read:
- Former Canadian Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff explains why he's a liberal, and why you should be, too.
- Jesse Wegman and Lee Drutman have some ideas about how to fix the United States' "two-party problem:" proportional representation.
- Block Club Chicago lists 10 of its investigations into the Chicago Transit Authority's mismanagement under its outgoing boss, Dorval Carter.
- Chuck Marohn explains why building tons of new housing in old, dense cities like San Francisco and NYC doesn't work as well as people hope.
- Two Illinois state representatives introduced a bill in the state House to decriminalize sex work, which would dramatically increase their safety and security.
- British computer scientist Peter Kirstein died five years ago, and left behind a delightful essay on the beginnings of the Internet—and the Internet's first-ever password.
- James Poniewozik has a fun history of TV show opening titles that will waste a few minutes of your afternoon (in a good way).
Finally, yet another coyote found his way into a store, this time an Aldi in Humboldt Park. Almost 17 years ago one of his ancestors tried to hide in a Quiznos sandwich shop in the Loop. The result was the same for both: removal and relocation. Block Club says yesterday's incident involved "rescuing" the coyote from the Aldi, but that seems pretty harsh. Like, was the coyote trying to go to Whole Foods instead? They're usually not that bougie.
Cassie and I survived our 20-minute, -8°C walk a few minutes ago. For some reason I feel like I need a nap. Meanwhile:
Finally, I want to end with Ross Douthat's latest (subscriber-only) newsletter, taking Vivek Ramaswamy to task for suggesting American kids need more intense competition in order for the US to stay ahead of its peers. I'll just focus on one paragraph, where he suggests Ramaswamy's end goal may not be a place we really want to go:
[T]he atmosphere he’s describing in South Korea, the frantic cycle of educational competition, isn’t just a seeming contributing factor to that country’s social misery; it’s almost certainly a contributing factor to the literal collapse of South Korea’s population, the steep economic rise that Munger describes giving way to an equally steep demographic decline. So for societies no less than individuals, it appears possible to basically burn out on competition, to cram-school your way to misery, pessimism and collapse — something that any advocate of intensified meritocratic competition would do well to keep in mind.
As I have more and more contact with kids born after 1995, I find so many of them who either have flat personalities, an inability to function independently, and an alarming lack of emotional resilience, or who have vitality, intelligence, and an ability to function in the world but no ambition. The last 30 years have crushed the elite-adjacent kids whose parents want them to enter the elite, whatever they think "elite" means. As a kid who traveled alone on public transit to Downtown Chicago at age 7, and managed to get from O'Hare security to LAX security without help by age 8, I feel sorry for these incompetent, despondent children.