Starting to worry a bit about this winter

Global warming—anthropogenic climate change—has warmed the entire planet, on average, about 2.6°C above the pre-industrial baseline. Last year was the warmest since global records began in 1850. In fact, the 10 warmest years since 1850 were the 10 years between 2015 and 2024. The north-central US, where I live, experienced some of the highest relative temperatures of anywhere on earth.

That doesn't mean it's hot every day. What it actually means is that the atmosphere has more heat generally, and thus more energy and more capacity to hold moisture. We'll still get cold weather; we just won't get as much of it. But we don't need super-cold air to make winter a miserable character-building experience for Chicago. We just need lots of snow.

And through the first full week of meteorological winter ending 10½ hours ago, we've gotten more snow than we've ever gotten this early, barring the worst winter of the 20th century, 1978-79, when snow remained on the ground for 51 days straight:

• In Chicago, there have been 9 days with measurable (at least 2.5 mm/0.1") snowfall between November 9 and December 7, including four days with at least 25 mm (1") of snow.
• As of December 7, 2025, Chicago has picked up 434 mm (17.1") of snow so far this snowfall season.
• During the winter of 2024-2025, 447 mm (17.6") of snow fell in Chicago. So, Chicago has already experienced nearly the same amount as snow as the entirety of the last winter season!
• This is the quickest start to winter since 1978, when 612 mm (24.1") of snow fall by December 7.
• This appears to be the 4th most snowfall on record through December 7.
• The average seasonal snowfall in Chicago is 942 mm (37.1").

Block Club Chicago piles on:

Last weekend, Chicagoans saw the snowiest November day ever, with 213 mm (8.4") of fresh powder blanketing the city on Nov. 29. Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1, but the weather service tracks “snowfall season” by the first significant snowfall of the season, which can happen as early as October or November.

Temperatures are expected to peak into the low 40s [Fahrenheit, ~5°C] on Tuesday and scattered rain/snow flurries are expected on Wednesday, when the high will near 40 degrees [Fahrenheit, 4°C].

More cold air will move into the region next week, with temperatures expected to plummet into the teens, Yack said. Some storm systems could bring snow then, but predictions are fuzzy nearly a week out, he said.

The rain and above-freezing temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday will probably not melt all of the 200 mm of snow still on the ground, and the meltwater won't really have anyplace else to go, so when the temperature plunges below freezing Wednesday evening and keeps descending to a forecast -14°C (6°F) Saturday night, we could be looking at some pretty horrendous conditions on the roads and sidewalks. (Cue the puzzled look from Cassie as I struggle to walk on two legs while she has no trouble on four.)

We still have 82½ days of winter left. Thanks to cool (but not too-cool) water off the coast of Ecuador, this one is going to really suck.